The Nugget Newspaper - News and Opinion from Sisters, Oregon

Two land-use watchdog groups are set to appeal the Sisters Comprehensive Plan to the state Land Use Board of Appeals (LUBA), arguing that its population forecast is too high and that it will bring too many acres of farm land into the city's Urban Growth Boundary (UGB).

To accommodate expected population growth, the city will add 134 acres to the existing 1,124 acres in the Urban Growth Boundary, according to the plan.

Paul Dewey, an attorney, filed a notice of intent to appeal the Sisters Comprehensive Plan. The notice was received by the city on March 25. Dewey is representing the Friends of Deschutes County and the Sisters Forest Planning Committee.

City Planner Neil Thompson met with the Deschutes County Commissioners last week to solicit their support to vote in favor of the 134-acre UGB expansion. He said the commissioners held the decision for a future date.

On Monday, April 5, City Manager Eileen Stein said she will recommend to the Sisters City Council that they withdraw the plan to evaluate the forecast numbers.

The council was expected to act on that recommendation this week.

The Sisters Comprehensive Plan forecasts the number of residential building permits, the persons per dwelling unit, the percent of population increase, and the population for every year until 2025.

Thompson determined the 2004-2010 population forecasts by multiplying the number of building permits for a particular year by the persons per home and then adding that number to the population. The final number became the population for the next year. The populations for 2002 and 2003 came from Portland State University (PSU) data.

For 2011 to 2025, Thompson calculated the percent of population increase by doubling the numbers from the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (OEA) 2003 Draft Forecast for Deschutes County.

Dewey said he opposes the 2004-2010 numbers because they are based on PSU figures, which is partly based on the number of building permits.

In a letter to the Deschutes County Board of Commissioners, dated March 31, Dewey writes that PSU does not account for the vacancy rates after 2000, "which are probably higher due to all the 'spec' building associated with new building permits. That is because the city does not provide that current vacancy information, though the city acknowledges there is at least a one-year time lag factor to account for construction, sale and occupancy."

Dewey is also opposing the population forecasts for 2011-2025 because they are significantly higher than OEA forecasts for the county.

"We challenge the population forecast," Dewey told The Nugget. "The city forecasts higher numbers than the state. If the population does explode in the next 10 years, we can always come back and do another expansion at that time. What we are really doing here is expecting really explosive growth."

The comprehensive plan indicates that Sisters will grow by 11.2 percent in the next year to reach a population of 1,782 in 2005. The growth rate will steadily decline to 5.6 percent in 2010, while the population grows to 2,601 people, and then 4.9 percent in 2015, with 3,303 people. The growth rate will be as low as 3.5 percent in 2025, with a population of 4,936, according to the comprehensive plan.

The OEA forecasts are countywide and show a growth rate of 2.88 percent in 2005, 2.44 percent in 2010, 2.45 percent in 2015, and 1.77 percent in 2025.

Thompson said the difference between the county and city growth rates make sense. He told The Nugget that growth rates for the county are based on an average of all the rural and urban areas.

He said it is expected that cities like Bend, Redmond and Sisters will grow much faster than rural areas.

Dewey said adding so much land to the urban area will stimulate unwanted growth.