The Nugget Newspaper - News and Opinion from Sisters, Oregon

Hello, Central Oregon NFL football fans!

As you may remember from the 2019-2020 NFL season, I, DataDave, had written two articles about the Seattle Seahawks. Those articles took historical, statistical data and made predictions about upcoming contests between the Seahawks and their opponents. Besides the outcome of the game (win/lose), each team’s point production was determined. This was done for the Seahawks/49ers (November 11th) as well as the Vikings/Seahawks (December 2nd) games.

Each games’ outcome, win or lose, was based just on one factor, the historical number of points scored by a team. The calculated outcome, the Seahawks winning, was right in each game. (This technology was also correct in picking the Super Bowl Champs, Kansas City Chiefs, over the 49ers.)

Regarding the calculated points scored by a team for each game, the Seahawks/49ers game was 100% correct (Seahawks 27, 49ers 24 in overtime). In the Vikings/Seahawks game, the prediction was Seahawks 27, Vikings 20 for an overall of 57 game points scored. The real score was Seahawks 37, Vikings 30, resulting in 67 total game points. Therefore, we conclude the Vikings/Seahawk game picked points accuracy was 85% (57 points predicted divided by 67 points actually scored).

Using just this simple variable, a team’s point production to predict wins, has been proven with great success! However, I am keenly aware that there is an enormous amount of luck involved, too!

(Please note, I have used this supported, statistical technology in recent, The Nugget articles. Those highly-accurately addressed the pandemic COVID-19 situation in Oregon as well as Deschutes County.)

So, let’s see how all of this stuff applies to the 2020-2021 turbulent Seahawks season! Particularly, the upcoming Thursday, November 19th contest with the Arizona Cardinals!

Here is the game prediction: Seahawks 34, Cardinals 30

We know that the home-field Cardinals beat the Seahawks in overtime on October 25th, 37-34. Arguably, this was the first tangible evidence that the Seahawks’ defense was porous. Before this, quarterback Russell Wilson and the high-octane offense have masked a lot of defensive warts. Yes, Wilson and crew had pulled a couple of rabbits out of the hat in waning pre-October 25th game minutes. Subsequently, the cries to fire defensive coach, Ken Norton Junior, are rampant.

Via the proven, colorful/statistical models (the mean plus standard deviations), we can understand the Seahawks’ game “scores/outcome process”. While they average just over 32 points per game over the season, the first five games were all over 27 points – driven by what appeared to be an unstoppable (and lucky) offense. MVP-candidate Wilson’s incredible throws powerfully and acrobatically caught by his host of talented receivers. Then, the Cardinal game exposed the Seahawks underbelly, its ineffective defense. Since then, three, ugly, energy-absent losses in four games.

The Arizona Cardinals experienced an awakening in the October 25th Seahawks/Cardinals game. Second-year, quarterback Kyler Murray displayed talent, leadership, and fire in this win. Since then, while the season’s points scored average is 29.5 points per game, they average 33.3 points in the last three games – in the presence of higher-caliber competitors. Last night’s Hail Mary – from a galloping Kyler Murray bombing a 49-yard pass to a 4-man, defended Andre Hopkins – shows their momentum, luck, and building.

So, with the Cardinals rising and the Seahawks faulting, why am I picking the Seahawks to win?

First, the season’s body of work in the points score methodology. Sure, the Seahawks are struggling. On average, this season they have posted 32.2 points per game to the Cardinals 29.6. When the Seahawks’ offense is fully operating, they have more offensive options and firepower.

Second, experience and professionalism. I have never watched post-game interviews. Over the past two weeks, however, Seahawks’ cogs Coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Russell Wilson have taken accountability and responsibility for poor performance. For instance, Wilson’s seven turnovers over the past two games - being expressed by Carroll as “not us” with Wilson owning vast improvement.

Moreover, voicing “difficult challenge” ahead but total commitment to overcoming adversity – in football and life.

These two men – as well as other Seahawk players/personnel – have proved to rebound from defeat in 32 of 40 games, 80% of the time. At least going back to the 2017-2018 season, they have not loss three games in a row.

The “Seattle System” of winning is defined, proven, and part of their longtime, winning culture. (Being in Cincinnati for 35 years, the Bengals had a losing culture – not advancing past one post-season game since 1991.) It is delightful to experience Seattle’s understanding and practice of striving for continual improvement.

In short, these gifted, Seahawk professionals will find girt in the next couple of days. This Thursday night, while the Cardinals are shining bright, as Carroll and Wilson repeatedly say, “Trusting the Seattle Process” will prevail.

Fingered crossed too!