Sisters poised for explosive growth

After decades of slow and measured increase, the City of Sisters and its surrounding community are undergoing explosive growth.

In fact, within the 310 square-mile school district (which includes the city of Sisters), the population has jumped from 4,900 to 9,000 in 10 years. This increase of 4,100 residents represents a growth rate for the decade of 84 percent.

Growth in the city itself, up to now, has been less heated than in the surrounding area. From 1960 until 1990, the city slowly increased from approximately 600 to 700 citizens.

The rate of increase began to accelerate in 1990. Ten years later, 950 Sisters residents were present to welcome in the new millennium. Within the past decade, in other words, the city grew at a rate of 35 percent, gaining 250 new citizens.

The city's growth needle could be pushed well into the red-zone in the next 10 years. City Planner Neil Thompson says requests for building permits are breaking records.

According to Thompson, this demand, and a relative lack of rural lots, will drive development into the city.

Thompson's records identify approximately 713 buildable lots within the city and its six planned developments. These sites could contain (at current domestic density of 2.2) about 1,570 new residents.

If, however, the builders decide to construct multiple housing units (and one has already submitted plans for six- and tri-plexes), these population estimates would soar.

At present, the city's 950 citizens occupy 422 residences. It is widely anticipated that, when the planned sewer system comes on line in two years, many of the more modest homes in the city will be replaced to take advantage of rapidly increasing property values.

Many building and real estate professionals anticipate that property owners will convert to duplexes to maximize profitability. If only one third of current houses are changed to duplexes, this in itself would likely increase the city's population from 950 to 1,235.

Additionally, the city is now entertaining a planning proposal to permit quadruplexes on the 46 buildable lots within the commercial zone. If approved and fully utilized, this densification strategy could result in an additional 400 residents.

Should these densification scenarios come about, a future mayor would represent 3,300 citizens, an increase of 250 percent. In the very unlikely event that no multiple units at all were constructed, the population would most likely increase 165 percent, for a total of 2,520 residents.

For many, Sisters' changes appear to be positive-- at least to this point.

Mayor Steve Wilson said Sisters has changed substantially in 10 years -- and for the better. He points to the increased resources and community activities.

"We have attracted a lot of very interesting new citizens who have enriched the cultural activities in our community," he said.

Real estate professional Dick "Rhino" Reinertson agreed.

"Our great lifestyle is what makes people fall in love with this area," he said. "If we work at it together we'll be able to maintain it -- to actually enhance its quality."

Not everyone is so sanguine.

Howard Paine and Bill Boyer of the Alliance for Responsible Land Use in Deschutes County (ARLU DeCo) maintain that growth has gone too far, too fast.

"Growth is out of control and livability is suffering," said Boyer. "Increasing crime, traffic congestion, and taxes are what happen when you let developers and the business community dictate the future."

Paine added, "Sisters is no longer a quiet little town -- and I don't think people realize what it's going to become."

The rural area surrounding Sisters has absorbed most of the past decade's growth and population will likely continue to grow there as well.

However, only about 625 buildable lots remain in Sisters' hinterland, according to planner Thompson. When developed, they should contain an additional 1,375 residents. Added to the projected increase within the city, this would raise the school district's total population from its current 9,000 to (approximately) 12,000.

According to Boyer, pressures to find more land will prove irresistible.

Much of the remaining district land is currently zoned "exclusive farm use." At one time, converting farm and ranch land use to the construction of residences was difficult, according to Boyer; Deschutes commissioners and planners were inflexible.

However, recent rezoning decisions in the Tumalo area underline the pressures to conform to the needs of growth. Additionally, figures from ARLU DeCo show that, in the past two years alone, 122 applications for non-farm dwellings within Deschutes County have been submitted.

All but four were approved