News and Opinion from Sisters, Oregon
News and Opinion from Sisters, Oregon
Lightning blazed across the skies in the Sisters country in a series of storms August 4-7.
During those four days, a bolt flashed out of the clouds and struck a tree on the north flank of Bear Butte just east of Mount Jefferson. The bolt forked out and hit another tree nearby, creating a small blaze in a branch stub.
Fifteen miles to the south, on a ridge near Square Lake, another lightning bolt struck a tree, scoring through the bark. A fire crept out from that strike and found a rotting snag. The fire nestled at the bottom of the trunk of the snag and began to smolder.
The days grew hot and dry and the wind began to blow. Small fires broke out on the Warm Springs Reservation on August 15 and on the Willamette National Forest on August 18.
On the afternoon of August 19, the fires that had smoldered in stumps and rotting logs for two weeks in the Sisters country flared up, sending smoke into the air.
As spotter planes and tower lookouts identified the smoke, the fires blew up, gained momentum and began running uphill. Within a space of a few hours, a major conflagration was underway, one that would ultimately cover more than 90,000 acres and cost nearly $40 million to fight.
That was the scenario painted by investigators from the Central Oregon Arson Task Force in a public meeting held at Sisters Middle School on Thursday evening, October 16.
Using photographs, weather graphs and diagrams of the origin points of the B&B Complex fires, the investigators explained how they developed the forensic evidence to conclude that both the Bear Butte and Booth fires were caused by lightning.
The conclusion strained the belief of many in the Sisters community. Many saw the near-simultaneous start of the fires -- coming just as President George W. Bush was to visit the area in a high-profile campaign for the Healthy Forests Restoration Act -- as evidence that the fires were intentionally set.
The investigators convinced at least one skeptic Thursday night.
An audience member rose to tell them that he had come into the meeting "as skeptical as anyone" and was leaving convinced that the cause was lightning.
"I am very relieved to see that it was not arson," the man said.
The task force investigated each fire separately. They interviewed witnesses, viewed photographs and analyzed weather and fuels data while waiting to gain access to the sites where the fires started. Both fires were too large and dangerous to allow investigators in on the ground for several days after the fires started.
Investigators considered and ruled out the standard fire causes including railroads, powerlines, campfires, exhaust sparks from an engine, children, smoking, fireworks and incendiary devices.
Team leader Randy Wight acknowledged that an incendiary device could not be 100 percent ruled out on the Booth Fire.
However, he said, it was determined to be highly unlikely as a cause because of the remote location, the lack of evidence of human presence and the lack of physical evidence of an incendiary device.
He noted that investigators combed the ground at the fire's origin with magnets, metal detectors and on their hands and knees.
One audience member pressed Wight, saying that she was "hearing doubt" in the investigators' explaination.
Wight said that he has absolutely no doubt that it was lightning caused, that his team was simply trying to be as precise and accurate as possible in their report.
Investigators said they recognized the high level of public interest in the helicopter traffic in the area around the time of the fires.
They reported that there was considerable traffic in the days before the fire started as military aircraft were in the area for the presidential visit.
One Oregon National Guard helicopter flew over the area on August 19, investigators said.
The pilot flew over the Highway 20 corridor from Salem in the morning, took Secret Service agents over the area that day and returned to Salem that afternoon.
Wight observed that the issue of helicopters is interesting but not very relevant, because, he said, nothing in the fire area indicated ignition from something that either fell off or was thrown from a helicopter.
Such an item or device would have left evidence, he said. No such evidence was found.
Forest Service investigator Ron Pugh acknowledged that there has been a great deal of public concern about the possibility of arson. He believes that the report will relieve those concerns.
"When people see the facts and the information, it speaks for itself for the most part," he said. "It's not bulletproof; we wish it was, but it's pretty compelling."
Pugh said the team would never rest if they thought that arson was a possibility.
"If there was even a smell of arson here, you would not be hearing what you're hearing tonight," Pugh said.
"If there was even a chance, we'd still be knocking on doors and turning over rocks."
Jim Cornelius is editor in chief of The Nugget and author of “Warriors of the Wildlands: True Tales of the Frontier Partisans.” A history buff, he explores frontier history across three centuries and several continents on his podcast, The Frontier Partisans. For more information visit www.frontierpartisans.com.
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