Sisters revises 20-year population forecast downward by 941

Sisters just lost 941 people -- in the year 2025. A challenge before the Deschutes County Commissioners has prompted Sisters to revise its method of population forecasting, dropping the projected population from 4,688 to 3,747 for the year 2025.

Oregon statutes require Deschutes County to establish and maintain a population forecast for the county as well as to coordinate the forecast with local governments within its boundaries. In 1998 the City of Sisters participated with the cities of Bend and Redmond and Deschutes County in developing the county's first coordinated population forecast.

Because subsequent census data indicated a faster growth rate than originally anticipated, Sisters, with assistance from the other cities and the Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD), developed a new population forecast for the years 2000 to 2025.

That forecast showed a 2025 population of 4,688 for the City of Sisters. Recently a challenge was made to the method by which this forecast was prepared, specifically the "transference of demand" theory.

Under "transference of demand" the assumption is that all land outside the city and/or its Urban Growth Boundary (UGB) will be developed first. Taking into account the available land, the zoning, and possible number of building parcels, the city estimated that the "build-out" would occur in 2017 at the current rate of development.

Then "transference of demand" would dictate a transfer of building activity from outside the city to inside the city.

When the city went before the Deschutes County Board of Commissioners, Paul Dewey, a land-use attorney who represents the Sisters Forest Planning Committee, challenged the use of the "transference of demand" concept for population forecasting.

To avoid a formal challenge, with expensive litigation before the state Land Use Board of Appeals (LUBA), the city has opted to drop "transference of demand" from its forecasts.

City Planner Brian Rankin described the basic method of population projection used by the city:

"Sisters based it's projections on historical growth, specifically the number of building permits issued annually, then anticipated future growth based on that history."

According to the July 2004 draft of the Deschutes County Coordinated Population Forecast for 2000-2025, "this technique is one of the most feasible, accurate, and cost-effective among the major methods of population estimation available for small geographies such as Sisters."

Rankin explained, "What was unique about Sisters and tough for us is that in the 1990-2000 time period we grew at a steady 3 percent per year. Then the sewer came to town, tripling the growth rate -- 14 percent per year. The question then became, 'What rate do we use for the future?' Fourteen percent growth is huge. It's unprecedented. But we experienced it.

"Now it's time for the crystal ball," Rankin said. "We're still in the high growth area but we crested last year. We project the growth rate to decline back down to the base 3 percent rate by 2012."

He added, "It's tough to do a 20-year forecast. There's so much uncertainty beyond year five. People don't want to hear from their planning department that you are estimating as best you can. They want to know that you're guessing, or estimating, accurately. But it's tough when you go out 20 years."

So, forecasting will continue.

"In reality, in 5 years we will be looking at this again," Rankin said. "On a yearly basis, we will now track our building permits to see whether we are higher or lower than our projections. If we are off we will have to adjust our growth forecast and, if necessary, our UGB."

In other city news:

Judy Trego was elected President of the Sisters City Council. She said, "Deb Kollodge, (former council president) has been a tremendous asset to the council.

"It's going to be difficult to fill her shoes but I am honored to serve the city in that capacity."