Rains dampen wildfire season forecast

May rain showers has rolled back the threat of another dangerous wildfire season in Sisters and across Oregon.

At least that’s what federal and state fire officials are now saying.

Federal fire officials at the Northwest Coordination Center in Portland have down-graded their prediction for the 2005 wildfire season from above average to average according to Tom Goheen, deputy fire management officer for the Central Oregon Fire Management Service (COFMS).

“Data to be released at the end of May shows that an improved forecast can now be made for this summer,” Goheen said.

COFMS is the combined firefighting resources of the Deschutes and Ochoco national forests, and the Prineville District of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM).

Goheen spoke at a briefing session for Central Oregon news media at the Deschutes Forest Supervisor’s office last Thursday.

Goheen said seven factors are evaluated at least three times before each summer fire season. These include winter precipitation, snow pack, snow melt, drought, June rains, fuel moisture and ignition factors, including lightning and human activity.

There are some risk factors that bear watching.

These include light snow pack at higher elevations from the Santiam Pass north to the Washington Cascades and the open rangelands where spring rains have produced tall stands of grass.

District Forester Bob Young of the Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF) sees things improving.

“My crystal ball is looking much better than it was a few months ago,” he said recently.

Young’s Central Oregon District protects private forests from Sisters to John Day and from The Dalles to La Pine.

“The 1,000-hour time lag fuel moistures were bone dry in the middle of March, about 15 percent. With the heavy spring rains, these fuels have come way up to 27 percent, what we call normal for this time of year,” Young explained. “Another strong indicator will be how much rain we receive in June. If we receive rain, the whole curing process is slowed down, not only for the larger fuels, but for the fine fuels as well.

“We may have a lot of grass fires, but not the huge fires like the B & B Complex Fire of 2003. I would much rather fight a grass fire than a large fuel fire,” he said.

Young added that another strong indicator is the number of dry lightning events. It is typical to get three to four events each summer. Whether the area has just one or two storms or four to seven will make a big difference in the amount of firefighting resources needed and how overwhelmed fire agencies may be.

Young sees one other challenge.

“In past decades, many wildfires starting on state-protected private lands spread onto federal lands,” he said. “However, in recent years, this pattern has reversed because of changes in forest conditions, fire causes and weather patterns, resulting in fires on federal lands burning onto state-protected forests.

“Because of this, ODF has had to commit its limited resources over a wide area at times.”

Fire agencies will be closely watching weather conditions for the next few weeks as a better sign of what the summer wildfire season will bring.