News and Opinion from Sisters, Oregon
News and Opinion from Sisters, Oregon
Help Wanted signs have popped up in Sisters this summer like mushrooms after a soggy spring. From hardware stores and lumber yards to bakeries and restaurants to resorts, jobs are going begging.
And it's not just a Sisters phenomenon. In Bend, too, employers are short-staffed and scrambling to meet demands for service (see story, page 19).
"It's always tough," said Jeff McDonald, manager of Ray's Food Place in Sisters. "I never get to where I want to be (with summer staffing). This summer is way, by far the worst."
McDonald says he needs 95 employees to meet his standards for service; he has 82.
At Black Butte Ranch, manager Loy Helmly is so short-staffed that he felt compelled to write an article in the BBR homeowners' newsletter explaining the situation.
Helmly says he has had advertisements out for positions this spring and summer and received zero applications.
"They don't even come," he said. "We have positions that are open and vacant and no one's applying."
Smaller businesses, too, are having their problems hiring, from sales clerks to line cooks.
The basic problem is a shallow labor pool. Deschutes County's unemployment level is 4.2 percent; conventional wisdom considers anything under 5 percent "full employment" - with the rest of the workforce either unable or unwilling to work.
Carla Powell, general manager of Metabolic Maintenance Products has seen the problem with the unable and unwilling. Metabolic Maintenance has a stable work force - over 50 percent have been with the company for five years or more - but filling positions lately has been a challenge.
"We have gone to using an employment agency in helping us, but we've had a harder time finding quality employees," Powell said.
"Since April we have not been able to fill a position," she said, noting that two or three hires didn't work out because the people simply couldn't be relied upon to show up for work.
"They're not people with a work ethic," she said. "That's the biggest problem."
McDonald says that "I'm having a hard time getting people who can pass their drug test. You'd be surprised at the number of people who (when) we tell them we have a pre-employment drug test...they get up and say, 'Never mind.'"
Even when good potential employees can be found, employers are having a hard time getting them and keeping them.
At Sisters Harvest Basket, Renee Wilson says she doesn't have a problem finding teenagers to work in the summertime for minimum wage, but finding adults to work full time for $8 to $10 per hour is tough.
"I struggle with finding adults in the community that can work full time and commit," she said. "Most grown-ups don't want to work for just an hourly wage because they really can't do that in this economy."
"People can't afford to live here," McDonald said.
Affordability is a challenge, at least for some employers. Jobs at Ray's range from minimum wage to $12 per hour for employees with no experience in the grocery business. Experienced employees can earn up to $17 to $19 per hour.
With rentals costing around $700 to $800 per month for an apartment and $900 to $1,500 for a duplex, condo or house, it certainly would be difficult for a $10-an-hour employee to afford anything.
Helmly at Black Butte Ranch acknowledged that affordability of housing is an issue, but not the critical one. Many of his employees commute from Redmond or Bend and the increasing cost of gas for the 30- or 40-mile drive is pinching them.
"It's a real concern for people," he said.
To help offset that cost - and to keep the employees he has, BBR is providing $20 in gas vouchers for each employee every month.
"It helps a lot," Helmly said.
McDonald said that many of his long-term empolyees live in Redmond or Crooked River Ranch or Bend and are applying for positions nearer their homes to avoid a costly commute.
In service-based industries, it's hard to create efficiencies when staffing is short. You simply have to have the staff to serve the public. When the staff isn't there, service suffers - whether that means taking longer to get your dinner or waiting longer for help in a store.
It's tough on the folks who are doing the work, too.
McDonald reports that he's been forced to work his lean staff from 45 to 65 hours per week this summer, which causes a strain. Helmly said BBR is offering incentives and recognition programs to help staff morale. He also bade homeowners to show their appreciation of the staff.
"We're all in this together, so please help us and remember to say 'thanks' to a staff member when they assist you," he wrote. "Everyone likes to be appreciated."
The one sure fix for a tight labor market is one that no one wants to see: a recession. Assuming that the economy in Central Oregon keeps perking along, employers expect their hiring woes to continue.
"I think it's an ongoing concern," Helmly said. "It'll change in the winter because of the ebb and flow of our business. When summer comes around it's going to be the same as this year.
A tight labor market is no fun for Sisters employers. Positions go unfilled and service suffers when there aren't enough people to get the work done.
But fixing that situation isn't easy or straightforward. It may not be possible. The supply and demand of labor is a dynamic system and it never hits equilibrium for long.
Sisters has some particular challenges:
• Housing:
A common complaint in Sisters is that wage earners can't afford to live here. The 2005 median cost for a home in Sisters was $394,250; the average cost was $449,979. The average rent in 2004 (most recent figures available) was $1,008. That may have dropped a bit recently with more units becoming available; current advertisements for apartments range from $700 to $900 per month and houses range up to about $1,500.
Paying the rent or mortgage is certainly a challenge on service industry wages that run from about $8 per hour to around $12 per hour, even when families and roommates pool resources.
A single person earning $10 per hour full-time takes home $1,332. If that person is paying $800 to rent, that leaves $532 to cover a car payment, groceries, insurance and other expenses.
But simply building more "affordable housing" is unlikely to solve the problem of a tight labor pool.
With Sisters being a desirable place to live, "affordable" housing units will be snapped up quickly - with no guarantees that the occupants will be qualified for (or interested in) the local job market.
More housing adds to the cost of infrastructure. For example, any housing that brings more children to Sisters will force the construction of a new elementary school. That means more property taxes, which translates into higher rents, continuing the cycle of rising costs.
Even if "affordable housing" allows some more wage earners to find a place in Sisters, it cannot fundamentally alter the labor market.
And those that qualify for "affordable housing" are the most vulnerable when the business and hiring cycle goes the other way.
• Wages and benefits:
Sisters remains a tourism-based economy and tourist industry service jobs don't generally provide a "family wage." Most hourly jobs in Sisters pay from minimum wage ($7.50 per hour) to $12 per hour; some jobs pay in the $15-$20 per hour range.
The rising cost of health insurance means that many employers simply can't afford to offer benefits as an inducement to employment.
It's hard for service industry employers to offer higher wages to attract employees in a tight labor market. Higher employee costs almost always have to be passed on to the consumer. While customers will absorb some higher costs, tourist dollars are discretionary dollars and if Sisters becomes too expensive in hotel costs, meal costs and shopping, the tourists will simply go elsewhere.
This would change the balance of labor needed in a dynamic system but wouldn't "solve" the labor shortage.
• Competition:
A growing economy means increased competition for qualified employees and booming industries can take workers away from other sectors.
Loy Helmly, general manager of Black Butte Ranch reports that it is nearly impossible to find maintenance or handyman workers because such folks are in high demand - and making better money - in Central Oregon's construction market.
• Demographics:
Sisters has the second-highest median age in Central Oregon at 38.8 (La Pine's is highest at 44.7). Central Oregon has a higher percentage of residents in the 55-74 age bracket than Oregon or the U.S. at large.
Figures for the greater Sisters area are unavailable, but anecdotal evidence suggests that the median age would be higher if outlying areas such as Black Butte Ranch and Camp Sherman were figured in. This indicates that a large proportion of Sisters area residents are of retirement age and not available for the work force (though of course there are older workers in Sisters).
There are more teenagers living in Sisters these days (Sisters High School is expected to hit its 700-student capacity in the next couple of years). Teens are perfect candidates for seasonal, entry-level, low-wage service jobs, but there is a lot of competition for their services.
Sisters Harvest Basket reports having enough teenagers to work during the summer to fill at least a portion of the 18-member full and part-time staff. However, Jeff McDonald, manager of Ray's Food Place, who relies on teens for seasonal work, finds himself increasingly outcompeted by Black Butte Ranch in hiring teens.
Yet Helmly at BBR says hiring teens is tougher than it used to be. He notes that in an affluent society, many teens are not forced to work - and they don't.
• Commuting:
Both Helmly and McDonald say that the jobs they offer have been attractive to commuters from Bend/Redmond and even Crooked River Ranch. Gas prices at more than $3 per gallon have made those jobs less attractive and many are looking for jobs or transfers nearer to home.
The business cycle will turn and local unemployment rates will probably again hit the 7 percent level they hovered at a couple of years ago.
Like the weather, the labor market is dynamic and hard to predict precisely.
Employers can cope with it, they can take some steps to protect themselves, but they can't fix it.
Jim Cornelius is editor in chief of The Nugget and author of “Warriors of the Wildlands: True Tales of the Frontier Partisans.” A history buff, he explores frontier history across three centuries and several continents on his podcast, The Frontier Partisans. For more information visit www.frontierpartisans.com.
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