Sisters housing market has taken a beating

The Sisters housing market has not escaped the national plunge that has put the country on the verge of recession. Yet, there are also flashes of activity here that seem to defy logic, resulting in a lot of head scratching by those who are trying to make some sense of the local market.

According to the statistics provided by the Central Oregon Association of Realtors (COAR), total sales in the Sisters residential market are down 40.46 percent from the heady days of 2005 and down 24.27 percent since last year. Sales of homes with acreage in the greater Sisters area have also been hit hard, with sales volume down 29.41 percent since last year.

The sales of land and lots has really taken a beating. Sales volumes are off 89.47 percent since 2005 and 71.43 percent from last year.

"The statistics don't really tell the story," said Kevin Dyer, a principal at Ponderosa Properties, LLC. "We have sales that are about 2002 levels, but since houses are about twice as expensive as they were in 2002, it means actual volume is about half of the 2002 figures."

Although there has been some attrition among Realtors in the area, most are still hanging in there hoping for better times.

"We really haven't seen many fade away, although a few have gone on to other things. Some, I know, are struggling, and I would guess that there may be some area Realtors that decide to drop out of the field later in the month when the annual dues come up for payment," said Peter Storton, the owner of RE/MAX Town & Country Realty.

Geneese Zinsli, the executive director of COAR, agrees with Storton.

"There have been a fairly large number of Realtors that decided not to renew their membership. There were a lot of members that went last year without any sales. The Sisters market appears to be losing less members, but I won't know the exact numbers until the end of the month," she said.

Housing inventory is down, which is initially surprising when considering the current market.

"So many people have taken their homes off the market and will perhaps try it again in the spring when things around here begin to pick up. That is the reason that the inventory is so low," said Dyer.

Storton agreed that many are sitting on their homes waiting for better times.

"I have told my clients: 'Don't sell your home now unless you have to. It is a buyer's market, and you would be much better to wait until things turn around,'" he said.

In spite of dismal sales in some areas, the quality market is still showing some activity.

"I think the people who are looking for more upper-end homes are less affected by the tightening of the mortgage market and are taking advantage of the buyer's market. Quality always sells," said Dyer.

Both Storton and Dyer believe that the market will just stay flat in the area over the next year or so and are remaining much more optimistic than many economists who believe that the bottom is still a long ways off. However, both expressed some reservations as to the exact timetable for the market turnaround.

There have been some real oddities in the last year.

"Last year, I had the worst nine months of my whole career, but the last three months of the year were the best three months of my career, so it is hard to understand what is really happening with the market," said Dyer.

Adding to the difficulty for area Realtors, the Sisters area has a high percentage of Realtors per capita when compared to similar market communities. This statistic creates a unique set of problems, as there are far fewer sales to go around and many are missing out entirely. For example, the tourist destination of Leavenworth, Washington has only 46 licensed Realtors with a stronger market and a slightly larger community compared to the disproportionate number of 73 Realtors in Sisters.

With only so many sales to go around, something will need to give. One thing is certain, those with staying power to survive the sales drought have a real advantage and will be well poised when the market eventually turns around.