Some Realtors remain upbeat

Although there is no denying that the local housing market is flat, sales continue and a few Realtors have had exceptional years. The results of the last year have been a mixed bag, leaving many trying to make some sense of where the market is going.

Mike Reed, principal broker of Coldwell Banker Reed Bros. Realty, is far from pessimistic concerning the current market.

"I wouldn't try to say that it is a good market because it isn't. But that doesn't mean that it is dead. There are still homes selling, and some of our agents are doing well," he said.

Some Realtors passed the year without a single sale, others had middling sales and a very few had strong sales for enough of the year to more than make up for slow periods. (See "Sisters housing market has taken a beating," The Nugget, January 23, 2008, page 1.)

Mike Mansker, a Realtor with Coldwell Banker Reed Bros. Realty, is one of those who had a good last year, yet he is unsure of what the future will bring.

"I don't know if the market is just flat like some believe or if it could drop more. If it drops more we will look back at those who sold their homes in 2005 as being the lucky or the smart ones," he said.

Some oddities have emerged in the statistics. The average sales price is a little higher now than it was a year ago. However, that statistic is partially a result of the lack of sales of more modestly priced homes.

Generally, it is purchases by those in the upper income brackets who can still afford to buy homes that have shifted upwards the average sales price of homes in the Sisters area.

Statistically, the average time on the market for homes that have sold is currently shorter than it was over the last two years; however, this statistic is skewed to some degree by homes being pulled off the market then re-listed again at a lower price.

Sales as a percentage of listed price are only off by about one percent from the previous years; however, this statistic does not take into account price reductions in listed prices, which are becoming fairly common in the Sisters area.

Some Realtors emphasize pricing as the key to selling in the current market.

"When homes are priced correctly, they seem to sell. Some people were thinking that they could ask excessive prices, and when they found it didn't work like it did in the market of a few years ago, they have priced the homes more correctly, and then they seem to sell," said Mansker.

Black Butte Ranch (BBR) is the strongest segment of the current market with about 42 percent of sales during last year compared to only 30 percent of sales the previous year. The actual number of sales at BBR is nearly identical to the previous year; the shift in percentages is a result of a falling number of sales in the rest of the area.

BBR was the last area to drop in prices during the last housing market crash which occurred in the 1980s.

"As I remember the Ranch (BBR), prices stayed fairly steady until late in the market; then, they fell very fast," said Kevin Dyer, a principal broker at Ponderosa Properties, L.L.C.

Reed remembers much the same, although he is not sure the past is an indication of the future.

"Prices did have a dramatic drop during that period, but there were not as many homes out there at the time. Black Butte was mostly lots then, and so it is hard to know if the same thing will happen again," he said.