Sisters has changing demographics, shrinking middle class

The Sisters Country is changing.

Michael Gaston, the Director of the Deschutes County Public Library, described the region's shifting demographics at Sisters Movie House last week. The presentation was hosted by RE/MAX Town & Country Realty.

The information presented was the foundation of a study that was conducted to prepare the library for its growth during the coming years. It included projections of growth and changing demographics.

The fastest growing segment of the population in Deschutes County is the Hispanic segment, according to Gaston.

"However, we don't see them as much, as they tend to keep to themselves and the population growth is not as obvious as it is with some other segments," he said. (See related story, page 9).

Gaston also told the event's attendees that Sisters Country will not see a significant portion of the growth that is projected for Deschutes County. He believes that Bend and Redmond will experience the highest growth during the coming years.

"Sisters will see some growth but certainly not as much as Bend and Redmond," he said.

The greatest changes that Sisters will experience are in the demographies that make up its current population base. Presently, the three main categories that are defined as residents of Sisters Country are labeled "Silver and Gold," "Green Acres" and "Rural Resort Dwellers."

These categories are three of 65 different segments of population that are defined in what is called the "Community Tapestry," according to CIVICTechnologies, the firm that provided the study for the library.

The "Silver and Gold" category is generally defined as married couples with no children at home with an average age of 59.3 years. The "Green Acres" segment are married couples or families with an average age of 40.6 years. "The Rural Resort Dwellers" are generally married with no children at home and have an average age of 46.9 years.

Over the next five years in Sisters Country, the highest growth rate is expected to be among the "Green Acres" segment of the population, which is expected to grow at about four percent per year. The other two segments will grow at a little more than two percent per year.

Other expected changes, according to Gaston, are an increase in those who are living at the poverty level.

"There will be a thinning of the middle class. There will be growth in both the upper income ranges and in the lower income ranges. The middle class will become less a part of the community," he said.

Another expected change is a general plateau in the number of school-age children in spite of the overall increase in population. The plateau will be caused by the general maturing of the local population and the increase in growth of the older segments of the population.

The predicted change in the local school population is already being felt by the Sisters School District this year and is in stark contrast to the strong growth projections used by the school district last year to add classroom space this past summer at the elementary and middle schools.

Gaston's presentation also included graphic mapping that showed the trends of demographic growth, none of which were a surprise to local Realtors. The less affluent of the local population tend to locate within the urban growth boundary (UGB) of Sisters and the areas close to town, while the more affluent settle to the north and northeast of the UGB.

The most affluent local residents are found to the east of Indian Ford Road.

Although Gaston cautioned that these projections are not carved in stone, they could provide a good basis for planning.

"I think this is very useful information and helps us to plan for our future as a community. Knowing what may lie ahead allows us to be able to be more effective in our business and city planning," said Peter Storton, an owner of RE/MAX Town and Country Realty.

CIVICTechnologies uses data collected by ESRI, a company that designs and develops the most widely used Geographic Information System (GIS). More information about the make up of the 65 categories that comprise the "Community Tapestry" may be obtained at the ESRI Web site: http://www.esri.com/data/community_data/community-tapestry/index.html.