Rain won't change fire outlook

All that rain in the last week of May probably won't lower the risk of forest fires this July and August.

The U.S. Forest Service is predicting a "normal significant fire potential through August" in the Northwest, according to the Northwest Interagency Coordination Center (www.nwccweb.us).

According to Trevor Miller, Fuels Technician with the Forest Service in Sisters, before recent rains precipitation was actually below the 10-year average for April and May. The agency had even slowed their planned burning considerably, "based on fuel moistures, wind and how we would like to disperse smoke out of the area."

Miller provided data from the last decade and compared it to this year's rainfall. The 10-year average was one inch of rain for April, and one inch of rain for May. In 2008, April saw about .3 inches, less than one-third the 10-year average. In May 2008, until May 21, the area had received .08 inches, less than one-tenth the 10-year average.

Then the storm moved in. By May 30, the local area received about 1.9 inches, bringing the total for the month to a little less than two inches, nearly double the monthly average since 1996.

"Until this rain event we were below average for fuel moisture ... we had a lot of snow, but last month, (there was) a cold dry wind that dries out our fuels pretty quickly," Miller said. "From our standpoint, up until five days ago we were below average (in moisture). You would infer that our fire potential would be greater if (a fire) became established."

Even five days of drenching rain has only a limited effect over the long run.

"As of now, my gut intuition is that a rain event like this is not going to effect things into the summer," Miller said. "We might get a lot of lightning. Our big fires are associated with high wind events, (when a) fire gets up and moving really quick before we can get initial response to it.

"If it is hot and dry until September, the rain we get in May (will not matter)," he said.

It used to be thought that heavy rains in the spring could actually make for a more difficult fire season. A lot of rain helps grasses grow thick and tall. Then later in the summer, the grass dries out and provides tinder for fire.

"I don't know how valid that argument is. There is no data to back up the 'green up statement.' It is the timber litter that is the big carrier (of fire)," Miller said.

"Central Oregon is going to experience fires. It has forever. We will have fires in the Sisters area. The size of those is unknown," Miller said.

He hoped that efforts to reduce fuels, dense thickets that are the result of fire suppression, and the timber litter - especially around areas of homes - would mitigate the danger.

He also noted that nationally, the Forest Service catches 85 to 90 percent of fire starts.

"It is the others that make the headlines," Miller said. "We catch more than they see."

So far, the Forest Service is predicting a normal fire season. Miller said that there is "nothing producing major concern that we are going to be in an above-average season."

The NICC web site also says that the month of June is expected to remain cool and dry. After that, "fire potential is expected to increase to seasonal levels by the middle of fire season as fuels cure and dry later in the outlook period."

Miller said it is very difficult to predict the potential for major fires months in advance.

"Ask me in October what kind of fire season we will have," he said.