What happens if local option fails?

Residents in the Sisters School District now have ballots for the local option levy renewal. If it passes, the levy will bring in about $1.1 million from local property owners for Sisters schools next year, about nine percent of the $12 million operating budget.

Specifics have been hard to come by. The district does not yet have a detailed "what if" plan. That will be developed after the results of the local option election are tallied on March 10.

Part of the problem in giving a clear picture is that local option is only one potential loss of income, according to Elaine Drakulich, Sisters Schools Superintendent.

"There are actually four revenue problems to date," said Drakulich. In addition to the uncertainty about local option, Sisters Schools face a declining enrollment of about 90 students.

This affects all three buildings, with the anticipated kindergarten class at the elementary school smaller than the fifth-grade class moving to the middle school, that fifth-grade class smaller than the ninth-grade class moving to the high school, and that ninth-grade class smaller than the class of graduating seniors.

This decline of enrollment could mean a loss of more than $570,000 depending on the level of state school support provided per student.

Because of the bad economy, local tax revenues are also declining as the percentage of uncollected taxes climbs. It is not known how large this shortfall might be.

The state has told the district that there is less state support available, telling the district in January that there would be a cut of $100,000, and then in February saying that there would be another cut of between $200,000 to $500,000, according to Superintendent Drakulich.

So the possible revenue loss actually ranges from a fairly certain half a million dollars to nearly $2.3 million.

"We have worked hard on local option because that is where the community can help. That is the most money," said Drakulich.

But all the losses must be considered.

The school board will go to work on determining what will be cut at a meeting on March 11, the day after the election, after the picture is more clear and Drakulich presents a draft of what she has heard from the community and her own thoughts on budget priorities.

Why not sooner? Why not give the voters an explicit list of cuts to make it easier for voters to decide?

A large part of that answer has to do with the very nature of public education, and the fact that more than 85 percent of the budget is for salaries negotiated by unions representing teachers and classified employees. It simply is not possible to cut the budget by the amount necessary without cutting labor costs. If you can't cut salaries protected by contract, you have to cut positions.

This is not a year for scheduled salary negotiations. There are contracts that can not be broken.

Mike Cox is president of the teacher's union, the Sisters Education Association (SEA). Cox says the teachers have been very supportive of local option, contributing time and money to its success.

"Our stand is that we want to see it pass. We have been canvassing, submitting letters, we've thrown some union donations to the committee. We support local option," Cox said.

But the union is not prepared to make any concessions on salaries at this point, not until it is known if the ballot measure passes or not.

"We are focused on the district getting it passed. What happens if it does not is something we are waiting to find out in March," Cox said.

Are there thoughts of rolling back salaries?

"We are in the second year of a three-year contract. As far as salaries, that is on the books. That is where we are at with the district ... We are not in a negotiation year, so we are not negotiating," Cox said.

In rough numbers, loss of local option could mean the loss of up to 16 union jobs. Would the union prefer to lose jobs rather than cut salaries?

"I haven't thought in those terms. We are focused on getting it passed, rather than thinking about if it doesn't. We have not thought about contingencies ... I have not had that conversation with the SEA," said Cox.

He said there are just too many contingencies, including cuts related to the other budget problems, such as the declining enrollment and the drop in state funding.

So the answer remains unknown: what will the district do if the money goes away?

Superintendent Drakulich pointed to what the district gained when local option first passed:

"Voters in Sisters have a loud say in making the district unique, preserving programs that are long gone in Portland, including technology, extended learning, a low student to teacher ratio, to a nearly zero dropout rate. Eighty-five percent of our students go on to higher education. We have maintained a fairly extensive program."

Another way to look at the same question is to read the brochure on local option, where it describes what local option dollars buy: "When the first local option levy was approved in 2000, it allowed the district to ... upgrade both instruction and programs, including lowering class sizes, supporting courses in art, music, technology, shop, foreign languages, outdoor education, P.E., and co-curricular activities including sports programs and after-school clubs."

So without local option, it might be logical to conclude that staff will be cut, class sizes will increase, art, music, technology, shop, foreign languages, outdoor education, P.E. and sports programs and clubs would all face cuts of some magnitude.

Sisters High School Principal Bob Macauley points out that once some of these programs are lost, they can't be recovered, which is what happened during another round of cuts when hydraulics, video production, bridge building and culinary arts were lost for good.

"You start the cuts at the perimeter and work your way in. The problem is that a core subject for one is not a core subject for another," Macauley said.

That is one reason why no one wants to identify which teacher will lose their job, which program will be eliminated, before it is known what will have to go. Many are reluctant to engage in what others would say are "scare tactics," and school officials are concerned that it is demoralizing on staff to know who is not going to be there next year if local option doesn't pass.

At the school board meeting this month, potential budget committee members were to be interviewed. The school board will have the final task of approving a budget.

So while voters may not know today what programs will be lost if local option fails and other revenue sources are cut, their elected representatives will be making some tough decisions.