Forecasters look ahead to winter

This is the time of year when everyone's thoughts turn to one looming question: what kind of winter will it be?

On Saturday, October 17, the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry in Portland played host to the Oregon Chapter of the American Meteorological Society's 17th annual Winter Weather Meeting, where weather aficionados of all stripes strove to find an answer to that question.

Four speakers shared their thoughts about how the 2009-2010 winter will play out here in the Pacific Northwest. These prognosticators were Kyle Dittmer, hydrologist and meteorologist for the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission; Pete Parsons, meteorologist for the Oregon Department of Agriculture; George Taylor, of Applied Climate Services; and Tyree Wilde, National Weather Service meteorologist in Portland.

Last year, broad-scale weather patterns in our part of the world were influenced by normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical mid-Pacific Ocean. This means that conditions were neutral; neither an El Niño nor a La Niña was in effect. At the present time, these ocean temperatures are slightly elevated, putting us in a weak El Niño. Wilde thinks that the El Niño will strengthen over the next three months and lead to a warmer and drier than normal winter.

Dittmer, Parsons and Taylor acknowledge the current weak El Niño, but think it probably won't strengthen, and may even die out by late winter. For the period November through March, Dittmer expects near normal temperatures, with above normal precipitation in November and January, near normal in December and below normal in February and March.

Taylor is going with somewhat greater early season precipitation, and then tapering off by mid-to-late winter.

"I think winter will be slightly warmer and drier overall," he said.

Based largely on the uncertainty regarding the future trend of El Niño, Parsons sees normal temperatures and precipitation for November and December, but a wet and warm January with good mountain snows.

"December looks like the best chance for an arctic air outbreak," he said.

After the dialogue was over, what became clear was that a cold and wet winter is NOT expected.

Bend resident Matthew McFarland, general manager of the Hoodoo Mountain Resort, made the trip to Portland for the meeting. For McFarland, a member of the Oregon Chapter for about 10 years, the information discussed at these gatherings has a direct bearing on his business.

"What interested me was the consensus that this winter's precipitation will likely come early in the season. I need to make sure we're prepared for a possible early opening, hopefully, by Thanksgiving," said McFarland. "I, too, think the weak El Niño will peter out as we go through the winter," he added.

While lightly regarded by most professional meteorologists and climatologists, it's interesting to note that the Old Farmer's Almanac has a similar outlook for our region. They foresee that temperatures and precipitation will be slightly above normal for the winter. The coldest periods will occur in early to mid-December and early February, while the wettest/snowiest episodes will be early and mid November, mid and late December, and mid and late January.

So, should we believe any of this stuff, or is it all balderdash? We'll find out soon enough.