Schools plan for declining enrollment

A decline in school enrollment is never good, since state funding comes in on a per-student basis. But the current decline - an estimated 6.9 percent from 2010-11 to 2011-12, according to the Oregon Department of Education - was expected and is not setting off alarm bells in the Sisters School District.

In actual numbers, Sisters dropped from 1,302 to 1,211 between 2010-2012.

The district accounted for the decline in its budgeting, and its numbers have proved solid. The decline is attributed to the down economy and lack of family-wage jobs in Sisters.

"The important thing is that our numbers have stayed stable," said Superintendent Jim Golden. "We budgeted for 280 in Sisters Elementary and we have 280.3. We budgeted for 377 in Sisters Middle School and we have 386. We budgeted for 501 in Sisters High School and we have 501 kids. We are 11.5 students over our budgeted number."

Golden's 2013-2015 projection keeps kindergarten flat at 57 (the high was 83 in 2007), and does not plan for any additional transfers in. As the 2007 "bubble" moves through the grades, the projected total enrollment drops from 1,204 in 2011-2012 to 995 in 2014-2015 (a 17 percent drop in 3 years).

Continued drops in enrollment could have a negative impact on the district's positive student-to-teacher ratios.

"We have the lowest class sizes perhaps in the state, certainly of any of the districts that I know of, and for a fact all of the districts in Central Oregon," said Golden. "Currently at Sisters High School, 22 is the average. Thirty-four is the average at Bend-La Pine. Our elementary has an average of 19, the rest of the elementary schools are in the high 20s."