Winter's not through with Sisters Country

Somewhat more moderate temperatures over the past two weeks have aided Central Oregon residents in digging out from one of the heaviest snowfalls in recent memory.

But there's still a lot of snow piled up that may take weeks to clear, and weather forecasters call for more cold and precipitation through February.

Longtime inhabitants of Sisters say they can't remember such a protracted spell of cold, snowy weather in at least 24 years, going back to the winter of 1992-93.

Don Rowe has been a resident of Sisters since 1957.

"This winter is only the third time I've had to shovel snow from my roof in 38 years," said Rowe.

He remembers the 1992-93 winter, but thinks we probably got a little more snow this time around.

"From the late 1950s through the 1970s it seems like two-foot snowfalls occurred more often than they do now, and began earlier in the season," Rowe added.

Naturalist Jim Anderson, who lives about half-way between Sisters and Bend on Highway 20, recalls a very early start to a winter in the late 1950s. 

"It started snowing on Halloween and by mid-December the snow depth was three or four feet. I also remember seeing a thermometer that showed the temperature was 36 degrees below zero," he said.

This season, early winter has smacked Central Oregon pretty hard. In December the average temperature was 22 degrees Fahrenheit, nine degrees below normal here in Sisters. And the first 23 days of January 2017 even colder, coming in at a bone-chilling 13 degrees below normal. The snow started flying early in December, and by January 12 many areas in and around Sisters were blanketed by nearly four feet of the white stuff.

Though still fresh in our memories, the previous harsh weather is history. What do forecasters think is in store for the remaining seven weeks of winter?

Forecasts at the time of this writing indicate that the weather for the last four or five days of January should be dominated by a ridge aloft, producing an inversion with cold temperatures and fog/stratus clouds near the surface, but sunny and warmer conditions at higher elevations. Little or no precipitation is expected.

On January 19, meteorologist Pete Parsons of the Oregon Department of Forestry issued a three-month seasonal climate forecast for Oregon. It is largely based on the current and predicted strength of the ENSO signal and upper-air anomalies. According to the Oceanic Nino Index, a weak La Niña is currently in play that is expected to fade to neutral in February.

For February, expect temperatures in Central Oregon to remain much-below average, while precipitation should measure above or well-above average with ample mountain snowfall. There's also a slightly elevated chance of another arctic air outbreak.

By March temperatures are anticipated to be average, accompanied by above average precipitation and mountain snowpacks. According to the Climate Prediction Center, in a forecast issued on January 19, there is an equal chance (namely a 33 percent chance) of getting above-normal, normal, or below-normal values, with regard to both temperature and precipitation in February.