Economist describes ‘jaw-dropping’ growth

Sisters is growing — fast.

“The numbers aren’t big, but the rate of growth is jaw-dropping,” Damon Runberg, Regional State Economist for the Oregon Employment Department told the Sisters City Council at their workshop on July 10.

In 2000, the population of Sisters was 961 people. By 2010, that number had grown 112 percent to 2,038 and that included the period of the recession, which hit Central Oregon hard. Since 2010, there has been an additional 32 percent growth to 2,691 according to Portland State University statistics.

Runberg described this as “a transformational period,” even using the word “radical.” He framed his comments by explaining, when starting with small numbers it doesn’t take a lot to significantly increase percentages.

However, even given that, he said, “The rate of growth for Sisters is off the charts. The 32 percent increase over the past eight years is not normal numbers; a whole different scenario.”

The employment numbers, he said, are more volatile than the population numbers. In 2007, prior to the recession, employment figures reached a peak of 2,264 with a big drop through 2012 to about 1,800. In the past six years, the numbers have consistently climbed back up to 2,408, or a six-and-a-half percent increase since the 2007 peak. By comparison, the number of residents has steadily increased.

Runberg said the good news is the jobs that have been added back since the recession are different types of jobs, not just tourism-related. And that is good because it means the local economy is becoming more diversified, which means Sisters may be more resistant to the next economic downturn.

Central Oregon in general was in the middle of a building boom in 2007 when the bubble burst and building-related businesses were the hardest hit. Comparatively, in the earlier dot-com bust, Central Oregon wasn’t particularly impacted because there weren’t many dot-com-related businesses here, although recessions do impact tourism as people cut back on discretionary spending during such times.

However, statistics indicate that in both 2006 and 2018, Deschutes County had the fourth most diversified economy in the state of Oregon, behind Clackamas, Lane, and Multnomah counties (according to the Hachman Diversification Index – 2006, 2018).

Despite the best economic planning, Runberg said, luck plays a part in which geographic areas are hurt by economic downturns. He used the Columbia Gorge area as an example. Those towns were not particularly impacted by the 2008 downturn because the things they are good at, like agriculture and food and beverage manufacturing, weren’t hard hit so they had great resistance to that recession.

He thinks resiliency is a more important component of economic vitality than diversity. How quickly can an area bounce back from a downturn? Aside from two areas, Deschutes County has experienced the most robust expansion in the country.

Runberg pointed to the “huge deficit in homes” that currently exists in Deschutes County. The overall number of building permits has been down, with only two of the last six years seeing enough homes built to meet the need.

One way to build in safety, according to the economist, is to add other elements to the economy. In Sisters that is happening with increases in the healthcare, manufacturing, accommodations and food services, administrative support and waste management, and professional, scientific, and technical industries. Retail trade and arts, entertainment, and recreation industries are remaining fairly level.

Again, keeping in mind the small scale of overall employment in Sisters, it doesn’t take very many increases or decreases in employees to have a noticeable affect on percentages of growth or decline. In 2010, tourism/service industries employment was at 45.9 percent. In 2012 it increased to 46.9 percent and then began a slow decline to 38.9 percent in 2018.

Runberg told the Council, “Tourism is one of the best incentivizers.”

People come to visit, love it here, and decide to move their business here or start a new one.