Rematches on tap in Northwest elections

This November will not bring a rematch of two candidates vying for president, but rematches of candidates who previously ran against each other turn out to be a big theme in politics in the Northwest this year.

And the dynamics of those rematched candidates could have a big effect on politics, both on the legislative level and nationally.

In Oregon, one of the closest congressional races from two years ago is being rerun. Democrat Andrea Salinas prevailed in the 6th Congressional District 2022 by 2.4 percent over Republican Mike Erickson, and both are running energetic campaigns again in the district this year.

Oregon’s premier congressional race in the 5th District (including Sisters), and what could become its closest in November, is a rematch as well. Though Republican incumbent Lori Chavez-DeRemer had a different Democratic opponent for the district two years ago, she faced her current contender, Democratic state Rep. Janelle Bynum, in two legislative races in 2018 and 2016. Chavez-DeRemer lost narrowly the first time and by a larger percentage the second. Those contests were an important part of Bynum’s case for why she should be the Democratic nominee there this year.

Taken together, these races amount to an above-average number of rematches for Oregon on the congressional side. In 2022, there was only one instance: when Republican Joanna Harbor competed for a second time against U.S. Democratic Rep. Earl Blumenauer in the 3rd Congressional District, losing by big margins both times in the deep blue district.

There are also rematches in Oregon this year in the state House: nine to be exact.

All but two feature Democratic incumbents who prevailed two years ago: Nancy Nathanson of Eugene, Ben Bowman of Tigard, Courtney Neron of Wilsonville, Ken Helm of Beaverton, Farrah Chaichi of Beaverton, Tawna Sanchez of Portland, and Hoa Nguyen of Portland.

The two incumbent Republicans are Cyrus Javadi of Tillamook and Anna Scharf of Salem.

Rematches are not unusual in politics. In 2022, 51 emerged for U.S. House races and 287 for Oregon legislative seats. In these races, the incumbent usually has the upper hand, having won last time and having the extra advantage of incumbency.

But they don’t always win the second time, especially if the incumbent has run into trouble or runs the second time in a year less favorable for their party. While the last two presidential-level rematches in the 20th century went for the incumbent – in 1956 between Republican incumbent President Dwight Eisenhower and Democrat Adlai Stevenson, and in 1900 between Republican incumbent President William McKinley over Democrat William Jennings Bryan – the four in the previous century went to the challengers.

A University of Virginia study of rematches for U.S. Senate seats reviewed 46 elections, and in just six occasions did the loser the first time go on to prevail in the second.

“This speaks to the strength of incumbency, a well-known factor in electoral politics,” said researcher Geoffrey Skelley. “Most of the exceptions involve friendly political environments, such as the open-seat avengers in the third category who won after initially losing.”

What does this mean for the Northwest?

The historical precedents in rematches would suggest an edge for the Democrats in Oregon’s congressional races, since the overall voting trends in the districts have favored Democrats. The 6th Congressional District has a clear Democratic lean overall, as measured by a mostly Democratic state legislative delegation and by the 2020 win in the area the district now occupies of Democrat Joe Biden over Republican Donald Trump, 55.2 percent to 42.1 percent. Also, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans in both the 6th and 5th districts.

In legislative races, the incumbents almost all start with favorable conditions. Challengers will have to find some reason to convince a slice of the electorate to change its mind from a couple years past.

That happens just often enough to encourage plenty of challengers every cycle to try again. But asking voters to change course is hard to do, and don’t expect it to happen often this year.