Sisters shopkeepers see mixed economy

While some store owners are reporting record August and year-to-date sales, others may be struggling.

"We think as many as five or six stores will not make it past January," said Shaunette White, owner of High Desert Chocolates on West Cascade Avenue. White is also president of the newly formed Sisters Business Association which have 39 members, about half of whom are retail shopkeepers.

White thinks those in stress do not get enough local support.

By contrast, Sisters Meat and Smokehouse had "their best August ever," according to Manager Sue Priefert who recently expanded wine offerings and saw an 800 percent increase in wine sales comparing this August to last.

Businesses are reluctant to give out their sales numbers, so getting a quantitative measurement of success is very difficult. Because Oregon has no sales tax there is no definitive way to quantify retail activity. Sales tax receipts are the gold standard in gauging results.

The closest hardline number available in Sisters measuring business activity is the 8.99 percent lodging tax collected by the City of Sisters. For the six months ended June 30, 2024, the city collected $498,693 as compared to $482,340 for the same period in 2023. On the surface that looks like a 3 percent gain but as room rates have increased by nearly 10 percent, it's actually a decline.

In a surprise report from Travel Oregon, Central Oregon was the only one of seven reporting regions with a decline in hotel occupancy YTD. The region also showed a decline in STR (Short Term Rental) occupancy.

However, such receipts cover only the city limits and not Sisters Country including the major impact of Black Butte Ranch.

That leaves only credit card sales as reported by Visa to try and put some shape on the true state of retail in Sisters. That too is inconclusive but does show a 5.9 percent YTD decline in tourism spending in Oregon.

It seems by the reports, as few as there are, that if a Sisters business is highly dependent on tourism, then, yes, they are finding 2024 thus far to be a struggle.

According to Travel Oregon, dining and lodging make up 49.8 percent of spending by visitors. Only 10.5 percent is spent on retail shopping.

A visit to the Sisters Post Office any early morning will reveal many hundreds of boxes, a majority from Amazon, being loaded onto carriers' trucks for home delivery.

Ten Twenty, a marketing consulting firm points out that the impact of e-commerce is a two-edged sword:

"Online shopping can affect local businesses in many ways. On the one hand, online shopping can provide local businesses access to a broader market, allowing them to sell to people who may not visit a physical store. However, on the other hand, it can also make it easier for customers to compare prices and purchase from competitors, potentially taking business away from local stores.

"In addition, if a customer can buy a product online, they will be less likely to visit a local store – negatively impacting foot traffic and sales. Ultimately, the impact of online shopping on local businesses can vary depending on several factors, including the type of business and its online presence."

In Sisters, more and more shop owners have added an online shopping portal for their products. Dixies, The SweetEasy Co., Bedouin, Rescued Living, Alpaca by Design, and a dozen others have robust e-commerce platforms, enabling them to fight back.

Some businesses, like White's, have developed new markets, not relying entirely on foot traffic. White sells to businesses consuming her chocolates for corporate gifting and meetings.

However, the typical soft goods merchant in Sisters is fairly confined in alternative channels.

Recent closures or announced closures such as Mackenzie Creek Mercantile and Common Threads have nothing to do with a decline in sales, their owners say. They were decisions based on personal or family needs.

That doesn't stop speculation though when a long-standing shop closes.

White is asking locals to "think Sisters first" before heading to Bend or Redmond to shop. Her group acknowledges that irregular hours by Sisters merchants give destination shoppers pause. Likewise, she points out, that Sisters is pretty much off limits for date nighters "....as the town rolls up its sidewalks at 8 o'clock."

Photo by Bill Bartlett

Sisters is a destination point for antique and vintage shoppers.

One group of shopkeepers apparently doing well are the vintage stores. The vintage clothing market is growing rapidly, and vintage shops are benefiting from a few factors, including sustainable fashion a more sustainable alternative to fast fashion, as it reduces waste and contributes to a circular economy.

Vintage clothing can evoke feelings of nostalgia and sentimentality as it reminds people of a bygone era. Vintage does not mean cheap, however, and quite often, particularly in apparel, the cost may well exceed that of new. There's a certain caché to wearing vintage apparel Harper's Bazaar says.

The secondhand market is projected to more than double in the U.S. by 2027, reaching $350 billion, led by Gen Z shoppers.

Sisters is no exception to the international trend with at least 10 stores in town offering a variety of vintage items. Vintage is not antique. To qualify as an antique the item must be at least 100 years old whereas vintage is usually much younger.